This chapter focuses on demand forecasting by illustrating how forecasting provides critical input to a variety of planning and execution decisions in supply chains and substantiates the importance of forecasting in business. For example, long-range forecasting models assist management in planning for the capacity in the long run, which has important implications on facility planning and location decisions. Similarly, short-range forecasting models assist managers in aggregate planning and scheduling decisions. The components of forecasting and the different methods in forecasting are introduced but as with earlier courses, my emphasis is not in having you run calculations that automated models provide when you are placed in a leadership position. For example, I want for you to understand the fundamentals of time series forecasting, how you adjust variables to accommodate unique business conditions, the risks/rewards when adjusting variables, etc. I also want you to have an understanding of qualitative forecasting models, such as the Delphi approach, expert opinions, etc. As an organizational leader, it is critical for you to identify different types of demand patterns, such as level, trend, seasonality, cycles, and random fluctuation in order to determine which models are better. For example, seasonal forecasting is a better technique when assessing demand for products such as winter clothing, lawn movers, etc.
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